Australian Antarctic Division ( Australia )
Atmosphere
Condition
The following 12 out of 15 criteria
1. | Serve as a robust indicator of environmental change |
2. | Reflect a fundamental or highly-valued aspect of the environment or an important environmental issue |
3. | Be either national in scope or applicable to regional environmental issues of national significance |
4. | Provide an early warning of potential problems |
5. | Be capable of being monitored to provide statistically verifiable and reproducible data that shows trends over time and, preferably, apply to a broad range of environmental regions |
6. | Be scientifically credible |
7. | Be easy to understand |
9. | Be cost-effective |
10. | Have relevance to policy and management needs |
11. | Contribute to monitoring of progress towards implementing commitments in nationally important environmental policies |
13. | Contribute to the fulfillment of reporting obligations under international agreements |
15. | Where possible and appropriate, be consistent and comparable with other countries� and state and territory indicators |
Yearly measurements
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The yearly winter temperature data at ~87 km above Davis have been evaluated to determine a solar cycle (11 year, natural cyclic trend evaluted as K per sfu [=solar flux unit. Multiply by 120 to express this value as K per average solar cycle) and a linear long-term trend. [1990, 1995-2000]: solar cycle: 0.067 +/- (std. error) 0.009 K per sfu [=~8 K per solar cycle]. lower 95% confidence limit value: 0.045 K per sfu. upper 95% confidence level value: 0.090 K per sfu. linear trend: -0.47 +/- (std error) 0.13 K per annum. lower 95% confidence limit value: -0.81 K per annum. upper 95% confidence limit value: -0.13 K per annum. That looks like 'cooling is weakly significant'. I would not be prepared to support these results from the present data because an assumption of the multiple-regression analysis used to derive the values listed is that the temperature from each year is known to the same accuracy. However, the 1990 datum is the least reliable datum, but it presently dominates the trend estimate. It is necessary to wait until we reach the minimum of the present solar cycle (~5 years) to be confident that uncertainties in the 1990 datum are not the source of the excessive cooling. The significance of the 1990 datum can be gauged by removing it from the analysis. [1995-2000]: solar cycle: 0.049 +/- (std. error) 0.009 K per sfu. [=~6 K per solar cycle] lower 95% confidence limit value: 0.018 K per sfu. upper 95% confidence level value: 0.080 K per sfu. linear trend: -0.003 +/- (std error) 0.28 K per annum. lower 95% confidence limit value: -0.78 K per annum. upper 95% confidence limit value: +0.77 K per annum. No significant cooling or warming trend is apparent from the most reliable, recent 6 years of data.
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The absolute value (and standard error) for 2002 are potentially seriously misleading if this value is used for trend estimates. Our spectral calibrations for 2002 were much more variable than for recent, previous years. We have tracked a source of this variability to the photomultiplier cooler which performed poorly (variably) during 2002. We estimate that individual nightly average temperatures may be in error in our present analysis by up to 4K. Normal errors from the spectral calibration amount to less than 0.5K. If we can commit time to investigating and correcting for this variation, we may be able to improve the accuracy of the 2002 value (...but will not be able to obtain the accuracy of previous or future years). It is essential to note that there is this degree of uncertainty in the present 2002 value.
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For definitions of the Scale categories, consult the Explanation of the Status Categories
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Project 701 - Long-term monitoring of the mesopause region via hydroxyl emissions at Davis |
Scientific Bibliography 17315 - French, W.J.R., G.B. Burns, K.Finlayson, P.A. Greet, R.P. Lowe and P.F.B. Williams. (2000) Hydroxyl (6-2) airglow emission intensity ratios for rotational temperature determination. Annales Geophysicae, 18: 1293-1303. |
Scientific Bibliography 17316 - Golitsyn, G.S., A.I. Semenov, N.N. Shefov, L.M. Fishcova, E.V. Lysenko, S.P. Perov. (1996) Long-term temperature trend in the middle and upper atmosphere Geophysical Research Letters, 23(24):1741-1744. |
Scientific Bibliography 17317 - Greet, P.A, W.J.R. French, G.B. Burns, P.F.B. Williams, R.P. Lowe and K. Finlayson. (1998) OH(6-2) spectra and rotation temperature measurements at Davis, Antarctica. Annales Geophysicae, 16:79-89. |
SOE Indicator 1 - Monthly mean air temperatures at Australian Antarctic Stations |
SOE Indicator 2 - Highest monthly air temperatures at Australian Antarctic Stations |
SOE Indicator 3 - Lowest monthly air temperatures at Australian Antarctic Stations |
SOE Indicator 4 - Monthly mean lower stratospheric temperatures above Australian Antarctic Stations |
SOE Indicator 5 - Monthly mean mid-tropospheric temperatures above Australian Antarctic Stations |
SOE Indicator 11 - Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas species |
SOE Indicator 12 - Noctilucent cloud observations at Davis |
SOE Indicator 13 - Polar stratospheric cloud observations at Davis |
SOE Indicator 15 - Stratopause region parameters for Davis |
The properties link can be used to view details of the parameters measured for this indicator.
Parameter Name | Unit of measure | Properties |
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Absolute temperature | Kelvin | Properties |